Weekly Crop Commentary - 05/16/2025

Wes Bahan
Vice President, Grain Division

Good afternoon. It was another wet week around here, although there are a couple of spots that did miss the rains on Tuesday night into Wednesday. There was a little bit of planting activity in those areas last evening. Other than that, there has been next to no progress made in the state. The rest of the country made a massive stride last week with 22% of the corn acres and 18% of the bean acres getting planted. Basis levels here in the east continue to be elevated as demand continues to be strong. Corn export sales came in at 1.67 MMT for the week, another astonishing number. The marketing year commitments are 94% of the projections, with 16 weeks to go in the marketing year. Needless to say, we'd better slow down, or we will blow right through the projection. The actual shipments are in agreement with the sales pace, as they are both consistently running 27% ahead of last year. It sounds like if we miss the storms tonight, we could see some planting done over the weekend.

Haylee VanScoy
Director of Grain Purchasing

May seems to be flying by, though for many, it might feel like it’s dragging on thanks to all the rain. The eastern part of the state finally got a window to enter the fields this past weekend, while progress in the west has been hit or miss. It’s that time of year when planting progress feels a bit like Whose Line Is It Anyway?—everything's made up and the points don’t matter! Some folks are completely done, while others haven’t even started. On average, I’d estimate we’re about 30–35% planted across the state.

This week, new crop soybeans pushed into overbought territory and have since pulled back from recent highs following an EPA announcement late Wednesday regarding RVO (renewable volume obligations) details being released in a few months, to which the market was anticipating news in a couple of days or weeks. This resulted in soy oil trading limit down into Thursdays and bringing the bean market down with it. With that said, we’ve found some support to end the week near the 20-day and 100-day moving averages. January ’26 beans are still holding above $10.00. If you missed the chance to lock in $10 beans for this fall, be sure to get your grain offers entered, especially while you're busy in the field. If we see another rally in the coming weeks, you may get a second (or third) chance. Offers can be placed by calling your local regional merchandiser or directly through the Heritage Portal. Let us know if you’d like access to this free tool!

As for new crop corn, I believe anything over $4.00 will look attractive come harvest. If you haven’t marketed much yet, consider setting target offers between $4.00 and $4.25. We also offer a variety of alternative contracting tools that could help you achieve higher price targets than where the market currently sits. Feel free to contact your regional grain merchandiser to explore what might best align with your farm’s goals.

Finally, we’re excited to welcome back former interns, Zane Robison and Morgan Hefner, who have joined Heritage full-time following their recent graduation from Ohio State. Go Bucks! Wishing you a happy and safe weekend!

Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)

We started the week with the bean market soaring after news was released from the weekend meeting between the US and China. This meeting resulted in temporarily reduced tariffs from both parties. The US lowered tariffs on China from 145% to 30%, and China reduced tariffs on the US from 125% to 10%. This reduction is set to last 90 days, hoping a more solid agreement can be worked out. We also saw the May WASDE report released on Monday. There were a few surprises, but the carryout tightened on corn and beans. Wheat did not follow suit, as production estimates improved for US winter wheat.

Planting progress puts Ohio at 25% planted for corn and beans. With how much rain we have been getting, it sounds like this is fairly accurate for how far along we are in my area. Hopefully, we will see some follow-through on weather forecasts for dry weather in the coming week to finish planting in some areas and start in others. 

Beans are ending the week on a negative note, as it was released that the EPA’s biofuel policy, which was anticipated to be announced within the week, is now expected within the next few months. This took away a lot of hope that the bean market had previously priced in on the policy news.

Steve Bricher
Grain Operation Manager, Urbana (Region 3)

Another week is in the books, and planting progress here in Ohio has been slow. As most of you know, I am a motorcycle rider, so I have been getting out and riding between rain showers. I felt fortunate that my backyard is as far along in planting as any area I have ridden over the last few weeks. Hopefully, we can see more progress around the start here in the next few weeks. As I wrote last week, a dry spring will scare you, and a wet spring will kill you.

Corn has continued its downward trajectory. We are not getting planted here in Ohio, but most of the rest of the Midwest is moving along, which is putting pressure on the corn market. We will have to wait and see if we finish getting planted and what the weather brings over the next 90 days.

Soybeans were in a sideways pattern until Thursday, when the EPA pushed back the RVO standards for at least 90 days. That is why we saw soybean oil down the limit, and it took soybeans with it. I can get positive soybeans longer term with fewer acres, but we need to see planting, and like corn, what the weather brings to us in the next 90 days.

When you can see your crop growing, it's a great time to start getting some sales as we move into the summer. Remember, the market will not wait for you to make a decision.

Zane Robison
Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)

Good afternoon, and happy Friday!

My name is Zane Robison, and I am the new grain merchandiser for the Urbana region. I primarily work in the Urbana and Mechanicsburg offices, so please feel free to call me at 614-205-5726, or stop by. I’d love to meet and talk with you!

Grain markets had an interesting week with mixed news. The WASDE on Monday was mostly positive; it produced a tighter carryout with the USDA lowering corn old crop stocks by 50 million bushels and soybean old crop stocks by 25 million bushels. It was also announced Monday that tariffs between the US and China would be reduced for the next 90 days, creating a somewhat bullish feeling about the export market.

All these bullish feelings were short-lived, however, as beans took a major hit on Thursday, with soy oil being down limit. The rumor is that the EPA submitted the biomass diesel RVO (renewable volume obligation) for review at 4.65 billion gallons. If true, it is well below the previously expected 5.25 billion gallons, which caused the mass selling of soy oil contracts.

Lower ethanol demand and Funds mass selling of contracts pushed corn lower on Thursday, but July contracts still traded at, or a little above, the previous settled price. Funds seem to be waiting for planting results before taking their next action. In other news, Brazil and China are in talks on DDG exports, as 10 new ethanol plants are under construction in the nation.

Champaign County still seems ahead in planning progress compared to the rest of the state. Hopefully, we can dodge the rain this afternoon to create a window this weekend. Have a great weekend!

Morgan Hefner
Grain Merchandiser, Nashport (Region 5)

I am very excited to have joined the grain team this week as a merchandiser for our Nashport and New Philadelphia locations. I will primarily work out of the Delaware office but visit the East frequently. I am originally from Northwest Ohio, so the eastern part of the state is new territory for me that I am excited to become more familiar with. I have much to learn, but I look forward to expanding my knowledge and meeting many new people.

It appears that we may get a couple of dry days over the weekend, but we should keep our fingers crossed to avoid some rain next week and get more growers across the state back into the fields.

The U.S. and China put a 90-day pause on tariffs ahead of this week, and nothing crazy happened in the grain market. Soybeans took a hit yesterday and do not seem to be bouncing back yet today.